The Showrunner’s AI Dilemma

To AI or Not to AI: Are We Trading Artistry for Optimization?

The role of a showrunner is multifaceted and pivotal. At its core, the mission of a showrunner is to maintain and bring to life a coherent creative vision for a television series, overseeing every aspect from scripting and casting to post-production and marketing - while keeping true to it’s artistic vision. They're the ultimate decision-makers, ensuring that the show's narrative remains consistent and engaging. As technology, particularly artificial intelligence, becomes more integrated into the entertainment industry, showrunners, perhaps more than any other role in the production of television shows, find themselves at the crossroads, or rather the fulcrum, of a pivotal decision:

"to AI or not to AI."

In this week's edition of The Brief, my primary objective is to equip showrunners with crucial insights and knowledge to adeptly navigate the influx of AI into the film and television landscape. As we delve deep, we'll uncover the mechanisms of AI's entrance, the champions bringing it onboard, and the multifaceted impacts it promises to wield. These storyteller maestros, traditionally anchored in intuition, passion, and the irreplaceable human touch, are at a pivotal juncture. They're tasked with discerning whether AI serves as an amplifying collaborative partner or poses a looming threat. The industry, which has always thrived on human emotion and interpersonal connections, is now rife with discussions on how AI might either enhance or eclipse the creative process. This edition engages in profound discussions, putting forth compelling questions to understand the intricate dance between Hollywood's emotional artistry and Silicon Valley's data-driven determinism. So, journey with us as we shed light on the potential synergies and frictions of integrating AI into the heart of cinematic narratives.

Learning from history - we’ve even here before.

In the late 80s and early 90s, amidst the echo of clapperboards and directorial shouts, a change was sneaking its way into writers' rooms across Hollywood. Typewriters, those loyal companions of many a screenwriter, started facing competition from the newer, sleeker personal computers. Veteran scriptwriters like David Milch, whose narratives in "Deadwood" weaved a tale of gritty realism, saw the introduction of computers as an unnecessary disruption to a well-established creative process. For them, there was a tactile and sensory pleasure in using typewriters—the weight of each keystroke, the rhythm of the keys, the smudge of ink—all integral to their artistry. Meanwhile, emerging talents of that era, including someone like Joss Whedon, who was shaping the sharp-witted dialogues of "Buffy the Vampire Slayer", felt differently. To them, computers were facilitators, speeding up revisions, simplifying sharing, and offering a palette of tools that enhanced creation.

THE GENERATIONAL AXIOM. This dichotomy illustrates the Generational Axiom, a sociological observation that new technological adoptions often use a younger generation of workers as a Trojan Horse to enter an ecosystem.

Invoking the Generational Axiom, we see a recurring pattern when novel technologies emerge, often facing resistance from entrenched stakeholders. The established guard remains deeply rooted in their time-tested methodologies, regarding innovations with skepticism or outright distrust. In contrast, the subsequent generation, having matured during this technological inflection point, perceives these innovations as harmonious connectors between the conventional and the contemporary. Yet, it's the newest generation, for whom this novel technology has been a foundational aspect of their upbringing, that truly champions its full potential, unable to envision an alternative reality. This cycle is exemplified by one of the most iconic Trojan Horse strategies in history - the rise of Facebook.

Generational Axiom: The Case Study of Facebook and the Mindset of Silicon Valley

Silicon Valley often follows a strategic pathway when eyeing a sector for heavy investment. The guiding principle is straightforward: if the aim is to disrupt and existing high-value ecosystem with entrenched incumbent leaders, then identify the path of least resistance to maximize scalability and growth - use the Generational Axiom. There's a well-established saying that resonates in the valley's boardrooms: "Never attempt to change the entrenched habits of incumbents - come in with a Trojan Horse" This understanding has shaped the strategies of numerous tech titans. Consider Facebook, Twitter, or TikTok; none set out to overhaul the internet habits of older generations. Instead, they astutely targeted the next wave of users, the younger digital natives.

Let’s take a close look at the way Facebook executed their Trojan Horse.

In the annals of digital revolution, Facebook's ascendancy is a textbook case of the Trojan Horse strategy in action. Founded in 2004 by Mark Zuckerberg and his college roommates, Facebook initially restricted its membership to Harvard students - no adults allowed. Within a month, over half of the undergraduate population was registered on the platform. The company cleverly expanded its network by strategically launching at other elite institutions like Yale, Stanford, and Columbia. By confining initial access to these prestigious campuses and only students, Facebook effectively created digital ambassadors out of their students. These early adopters, tech-savvy and keen to be at the forefront of innovation, quickly embraced the novel concept of "social media" and became its champions. With each college integration, a fresh batch of digital-native students welcomed Facebook into their daily lives, seeing it not as an intrusion but as an invaluable tool for connection. By the end of its first year, Facebook had one million users. In five years, that number ballooned to over 300 million. Today, the platform boasts well over 2.8 billion monthly active users. Through targeting a new generation predisposed to technological innovation, Facebook orchestrated a profound metamorphosis in global communication, demonstrating the immense power of the generational Trojan Horse approach.

But for showrunners, who sit at the fulcrum between creative, corporate, the need to get things done, will face not one, but three Trojan Horses, each heralding a distinct avenue of transformation.

THE INNOVATION TRIAD AXIOM. Technological evolutions stem from three core vectors: the bottom - e.g the grassroots enthusiasm of early adopters to gain an advantage in their daily jobs, the top - e.g. the desire for corporations to increase profits and maintain growth, and the side - e.g. the bold innovations of unbound disruptors; together, these forces converge to transform and redefine longstanding industry practices.

The bottom-up Trojan Horse strategy will soon make its way into the entertainment ecosystem. Targeted emails and ads, meticulously crafted to grab attention, will inundate the inboxes of fresh graduates and showrunners boasting 5 years or less of experience. These communications will tantalizingly offer free or nearly free plugins and web services, all wrapped in the promise of simplifying tasks and providing a significant advantage in their burgeoning careers.

These bottom up AI Tool offers will likely come in three types of tools.

Firstly, the realm of generic tools, transferrable across a multitude of sectors, will beckon these young professionals. AI-powered market analyses could spotlight trending genres, topics, or even dialogue styles, saving hours of manual research. Team coordination tools might suggest optimal team structures based on past successful show productions, or even recommend specific writers, directors, or producers whose past work aligns with a showrunner's vision. For a young showrunner, these tools could be invaluable, enabling quicker, data-driven decisions and allowing them to impress senior colleagues with their resourcefulness and efficient handling of challenges.

In the next tier, media specific tools, tools sculpted for the exclusive intricacies of the film and television industry will emerge. An AI-driven application might project a script's success by comparing its elements to historical box office hits or analyze streaming data to suggest the perfect episode length for maximum viewer engagement. Consider another tool that might provide a real-time analysis of a show's pilot episode popularity across different demographics. Such insights can be crucial for budding professionals aiming to tweak content to suit a target audience or secure more substantial viewer loyalty early on.

Lastly, the wave of tailor-made tools for showrunners themselves will hit the shores. Imagine an AI-enhanced script editor that not only corrects grammar but evaluates dialogues for emotional impact, or an AI-backed casting assistant that cross-references actors' previous roles, awards, and even social media popularity to suggest the perfect lead for a new series. For a young showrunner, this isn't just about efficiency; it's about enhancing their creative vision with precise, data-backed suggestions, ensuring their projects have the best shot at success in a competitive market.

From the top - In parallel, a new guard of executives at top studios and streaming services will perceive AI from a macro lens, seeing its potential in sculpting larger industry trends and driving profitability. Think of an ambitious young studio executive, leveraging AI analytics to determine the potential success of a show even before its pilot is shot, streamlining greenlight processes and ensuring maximum audience engagement. For more detailed on this one - feel free to read my previous issue on the topic called Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.

From the side - The third, and perhaps the most disruptive vector, will be the tech mavericks who will make offer that effect the creative side of things—startup founders unburdened by Hollywood's legacy. For them, AI isn't just a tool; it's the medium itself. These visionaries could spawn entire AI-driven platforms where storytelling is automated, from scripting to voiceovers. One could envision a future platform that crafts children's tales based on global cultural nuances, almost negating the need for a traditional showrunner and opening the possibility of a new AI-native showrunner made of completely different DNA.

A THEME TO REMEMBER. The three forms of the Trojan Horses will be Integrated AI, Analytical AI, and Orthogonal AI.

AI's incursion into Hollywood will not only emerge via three Trojan Horse vectors but will also manifest in three distinct forms: Integrated, Analytical, and Orthogonal.

The Integrated AI will dovetail with current tools and existing workflows, enhancing their capabilities. They will come as free, or nearly free plugins. Imagine a fresh graduate, recently stepping into the role of showrunner, urgin their team to utilize Maya, Blender, and Cinema 4D enhanced with AI-driven morphing. This 'bottom' Trojan Horse vector ensures that the next generation will elevate traditional tools to new heights.

The Analytical form, fitting the 'top' vector, won't create, but will deeply analyze and refine. A young showrunner might leverage this AI to get invaluable insights from decades of film data, elevating their storytelling to match historic successes - financial success that is (and this is important for later on). This doesn't replace but redirects their creative energies.

However, the Orthogonal AI is a game-changer. Aligning with the 'side' vector, it offers new paradigms, like RunwayML, that don't just support showrunners but claim to perform their tasks autonomously. This radical form might not just alter the showrunner's role but has the potential to make it redundant, illustrating the profound transformation AI can bring to Hollywood's traditional roles. If you’d like to know a lot more about these three types of AI - feel free to read the issue called - Will AI Eat My Job

A THEME TO REMEMBER. While Integrated AI and Analytical AI will dramatically augment the role of a today’s definition of a showrunner over the next 5 years, it's the Orthogonal AI that truly demands our attention—because it will redefine what a showrunner is.

What exactly is the Orthogonal AI?

The goal of Orthogonal AI will be watchable content created entirely by artificial intelligence, from script to screen. This means no writers, no directors, no actors — or at least, actors that have been digitally crafted from real individuals using AI. Cinematographers, editors, and the entire stage or production staff could be rendered obsolete in this scenario. It doesn't merely integrate into existing workflows but introduces a wholly new method of production. For those invested in Hollywood's traditional roles, this could spell profound transformations, if not complete obsolescence.

What does this mean for showrunners?

In today's world, a showrunner serves as the mastermind of a television series, wearing multiple hats, from guiding the narrative direction to liaising with studio executives. Their skills encompass a profound understanding of storytelling, an innate ability to manage large creative teams, adeptness at negotiating the politics of production, and a tangible connection with the audience's pulse. They fuse the worlds of business, creativity, and management. However, in a world dominated by Orthogonal AI, the traditional showrunner's role morphs dramatically. An AI-native showrunner — a term that describes an individual who has grown up with, been educated by, and operates naturally within an environment saturated by advanced AI technologies — would possess a vastly different skill set. Their expertise would lean heavily into understanding, guiding, and refining AI processes and algorithms. Their creative flair would be in tuning AI to generate content that resonates, and their managerial tasks would focus on overseeing AI-driven departments. The AI-native showrunner's DNA would be a fusion of tech-savvy acumen, data interpretation, and a nuanced understanding of how algorithms can be molded to create emotionally compelling content. They would need a keen interest in both technology and storytelling, ensuring the harmony of machine precision with human emotion.

Should showrunners be shitting Twinkies?

Or rather, is Orthogonal AI an immediate menace to the established framework of Hollywood? The answer, quite clearly, is no. Current tools and platforms like RunwayML and Pika Labs, forerunners in this technological revolution, often provoke chuckles rather than concern amongst seasoned Hollywood veterans. Their output, seen through the lens of today's gold standard in entertainment, may come across as elementary, perhaps even farcical. However, this dismissive attitude could be the very blindspot jeopardizing the future of showrunners. The trajectory of disruptive innovations, as eloquently outlined in Clayton Christianson’s "Innovator's Dilemma," underscores this paradox. These embryonic technologies, initially viewed as trivialities, are the ones that possess the latent potential to upend industries. The notion reminds one of the adage, "It's amusing to see the elephant dance, but I wouldn't take it to the ballet." Yet, history has shown that it’s precisely such dancing elephants that eventually set the stage ablaze, redefining the very essence of the performance.

RunwayML, founded by Cristóbal Valenzuela in 2018, is a beacon of Orthogonal AI, providing tools for harnessing AI's creative potential. While its current outputs might not measure up to Hollywood's gold standard, its significance lies in its future promise. Notably, its primary users aren't the established filmmakers, but rather the forward-looking next generation who embrace AI as a revolutionary tool in content creation, seeing its potential where others might dismiss or ridicule it.

To fully grasp the magnitude and nuances of this transformation, it's paramount to delve into Clayton Christensen's seminal work, "The Innovator's Dilemma", which expertly delves into the complexities of disruptive innovations and their influence on industries.

Clayton Christenson's "The Innovator’s Dilemma" presents a poignant chronicle of the the dancing elephants within the computer storage industry, marked by relentless waves of innovation and the inexorable march of obsolescence. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, large mainframe disk drives reigned supreme, yet their dominance was soon to be undermined. The 1980s saw the rise of minicomputer drives, which were not just more agile but also more affordable. Companies like Control Data and RCA, once titans of the industry, grappled with these tides of change, only to realize that the skills, workflows, and talents they had nurtured for so long were becoming redundant. As if this weren't disruptive enough, the 1990s ushered in an era of even smaller 3.5-inch drives for personal computers. Seagate and its contemporaries found themselves navigating turbulent waters, with their established competencies, once a source of pride, now rendered increasingly irrelevant in the face of this technological whirlwind.

Drawing a parallel with Hollywood, one observes the possibility of an eerily similar trajectory taking shape if RunwayML’s dancing elephants do in fact light up the stage. For generations, Hollywood's content production prowess was anchored in a robust amalgamation of technology, workflows, and talent. But now, with Silicon Valley's introduction of Orthogonal AI, there's a potential tectonic shift on the horizon. This is not merely a technological evolution; it's a revolution, that threatens to render the existing skills, workflows, technology, and talents of the Hollywood ecosystem obsolete.

That means showrunners, as we know them today, will be out of job - relegated to the travel agents of entertainment.

Imagine an AI engine in ten years transforming from dancing elephants to the commanders of the stage, unparalleled in efficiency, capable of churning out thousands of television series in the time it takes traditional methods to produce just one. And not just any content — but series that resonate, engage, and are perceived by audiences as equivalent or better in quality to their traditionally-produced counterparts. Also imagine an audience ten years from now having undergone their own generational metamorphosis, one that welcomes AI generated content instead of fears it. Imagine a world in ten or twenty years where audiences, with insatiable appetites for content, don’t care about how things are created, they only care about what is being created. A world only AI could serve.

A THEME TO REMEMBER. If we accept the premise the Generational Axiom, we must also recognize, that without care, we are only one generation away from art, acting, and celebrity not mattering.

This, if it happens, would be a new frontier for AI-native showrunners. One that might produce that aforementioned Twinky.

Let us now imagine that world twenty years from now - a world where we forgot to care for art, acting, and the value of the human touch.

In this world, the newly minted AI-native showrunner will be managing technology, not people. One of the paramount revolutions promised by Orthogonal AI is the synergy between two core technologies: real-time generation and real-time information gathering. These intertwined capabilities not only change the way content is created but also the very nature of its interaction with the audience. When content can be generated in real-time, while concurrently understanding and adapting to the viewer's immediate context, preferences, and emotional state, the result is an unparalleled, deeply personalized viewing experience.

Consider the transformative potential when these two innovations work in tandem:

1. Emotion-Driven Narratives: By gauging the viewer's current emotional state through biometric feedback, episodes can adapt their plot twists, ensuring every moment resonates deeply.

2. Educational Alignment: As parents specify learning goals, children's shows can recalibrate in real-time, transforming entertainment into targeted education, tailored to a child's recent learning experiences.

3. Political Mood Mapping: Based on a viewer's recent online discussions or expressed beliefs, political dramas can shift perspectives, echoing the viewer's evolving standpoints.

4. Micro-demographic Insights: Harnessing data from recent online searches or activities, AI can craft content that speaks to the viewer's most recent interests or emerging trends within niche communities.

5. Language & Cultural Context: Detecting a viewer's recent travel destinations or language interactions, shows can offer contextually relevant translations, or cultural tidbits, enhancing relatability.

6. Mood-Adaptive Themes: If a viewer's recent online interactions hint at a need for comfort or laughter, comedies and dramas can adjust their tones spontaneously.

7. Interactive Feedback Loops: As viewers make choices within interactive episodes, the narrative can immediately branch out, but also gather data on preferences for future viewing suggestions.

8. Localized Relevance: Analyzing viewers' recent local news or events, global shows can introduce localized elements, making content feel timely and pertinent.

9. Incorporating Real-world Experiences: Based on shared personal events or photos, AI might subtly incorporate viewer's experiences or places into the narrative.

10. Optimal Engagement Length: If the AI discerns from the viewer's schedule that they have only a short break, shows can compress to deliver a fulfilling, concise episode.

Intriguing, isn't it? Yet, if we neglect the ethical and sociological implications, the results could be catastrophic. Does this potential future resonate with you? Devotees of gripping dystopian tales might find it unsettlingly familiar. Think of the haunting Black Mirror episode, "Joan is Awful". It vividly illustrates the dangers of unrestrained technological advancements. The allure of crafting incredibly immersive and highly personalized content is undeniable. However, such episodes underscore a critical message: unbridled technological power can rapidly become a menace. As we venture towards this AI-dominated horizon, narratives like those in Black Mirror transition from mere warnings to essential signposts.

And showrunners will be the soldier who meet the Trojan Horses of AI head on.

As the guardians of storytelling, showrunners face a dichotomy of purpose. On one side, their conscientious spirit compels them to uphold the rich traditions of filmmaking, valuing the artistry and craftsmanship that breathe life into narratives. Yet, the inexorable march of technology, with AI at its vanguard, presents tantalizing promises of efficiency and productivity. It whispers the possibility of achieving more, reaching wider audiences, and meeting the demands of corporate powerhouses that yearn for consistent, quantifiable targets. Showrunners, perhaps more than any other professionals in the industry, are poised at this delicate intersection. They are torn between the soul's yearning to create timeless art and the siren call of optimization and shortcuts that AI seductively offers. While the battle fronts may be set by Silicon Valley, corporate board rooms, and the creative minds of writers, directors, and actors, the boots on the ground will be showrunners— and their battle will be within. Meeting each of the three Trojan Horses head-on, it's within the chambers of their hearts and the recesses of their minds that the future of entertainment will be shaped. The balance between art and algorithmic perfection will be tested, challenged, and redefined. While the path ahead is uncertain, proactive steps can be taken today to navigate this complex landscape and ensure that art remains at the heart of every story.

Why would a lion care what a lamb thinks?

Silicon Valley, known more for invention rather than care, has repeatedly unleashed innovations without fully weighing their ethical and sociological repercussions. The emergence and potential domination of AI in the world of cinema and television presents an even more profound challenge, one we cannot afford to tackle retroactively. If unchecked, there's a looming danger that AI could evolve beyond our influence, rendering our intentions and endeavors insignificant. This predicament mirrors the evocative sentiment: "why would a lion care what a lamb thinks?" Hence, it falls upon both established and emerging showrunners to spearhead this initiative, especially when Silicon Valley may not.

Established showrunners, with their wealth of experience managing art and optimization, should mentor the new generation, imparting knowledge while also imbibing fresh perspectives. Aspiring showrunners, on the other hand, can seek out opportunities to familiarize themselves with both the intricacies of AI and the nuances of cinematic art. By fostering collaborative learning environments, workshops, or think tanks, both groups can ensure they are well-informed and equipped with critical thinking skills to form individual standpoints. Only then can the industry engage in a thoughtful, comprehensive dialogue about the interplay of art and optimization, charting a course that respects both human creativity and technological advancement.

Learn. Learn. Learn. As fast as you can. For art or AI, know where you stand.

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What is The Brief and Who should read it?

I release a weekly digest every Friday, tailored for professionals ranging from executives to writers, directors, cinematographers, editors, and anyone actively involved in the film and television domain. This briefing offers a comprehensive yet accessible perspective on the convergence of technology and its implications for the movie and TV industry. It serves as an efficient gateway to understanding the nexus between Hollywood and Silicon Valley.

What’s the format of The Brief?

In the evolving landscape of Film and Television, concerns about the repercussions of rapid technological advancements are growing. Many in the industry fear that innovations, like AI, could threaten job security, while there's an unease that corporations might put profit margins ahead of fair compensation. But history, particularly from past technological waves in Silicon Valley, offers us valuable lessons. In this weekly analysis, I'll juxtapose historical context with present-day developments, aiming to provide clear and informed insights into how the industry is being reshaped — acknowledging the challenges but also spotlighting the new horizons.

Who am I?

I'm Steve Newcomb. Functionally, I’m a recovering Silicon Valley founder that is finally old enough to have a bit of care. I’m perhaps most recognized for founding Powerset— it was the largest AI and machine learning project in the world when I founded it. It was later acquired by Microsoft and transformed into something you might recognize today - Microsoft Bing. Beyond Bing, I had the privilege of being on the pioneering team that witnessed the inaugural email sent via a mobile device. My journey also led me to SRI (Stanford Research Institute), where we laid the groundwork for contemporary speech recognition technology. Additionally, I was a co-founder of the debut company to introduce a 3D physics engine in Javascript. I've held positions on the board of directors and contributed funding to massive open source initiatives like NodeJS and even the largest such project, jQuery. My experience extends to academia, having been a senior fellow at the University of California, Berkeley's engineering and business faculties. Recently, I ventured into Layer 2 internet protocols and assisted a company named Matter Labs in securing $440 million in funding to bolster their endeavors.

What am I doing besides writing these posts?

Typically, I allocate a year between groundbreaking ventures. My exploration for the upcoming project commenced in May 2023, and the sole certainty is its nexus with the film, television, SMURF, and AI domains. Sharing insights on my research endeavors helps me discern between feasible prospects and mere illusions. My hope is that for this venture, I appropriately consider the ethical and sociological repercussions.

If you are interested in contacting me, being interviewed, being helped, or yelling at me, my email is steve.e.newcomb@gmail.com.