Will AI eat my Job?
The impact of AI and technology trends on film and television industry jobs
The allure and apprehension surrounding AI and the shift from live action filmmaking to pure digital are palpable in Hollywood. We stand on the brink, teetering between a technological paradise and the potential loss of the people and artistic essence that fuels cinema.
In this edition, I delve deep into emerging trends, sociological shifts, and the consequential impacts on occupations, processes, and the forthcoming era of cinema.
I'll first be turning our attention to three significant technological shifts predicted to reshape the industry's employment landscape over the next two decades. These movements, in their ascendancy, promise not only to transform existing roles but also introduce new avenues and challenges. The impact of such advancements on jobs, both in nature and number, will be profound, and understanding these changes is crucial for anyone involved in the sector.
Artificial Intelligence - AI integrated into every step of filmmaking
Pure Digital Filmmaking - The trend of filmmaking from live action to CGI
The Unknown - The possibility that a new genre of “film” entertainment arises
Secondarily, I'm positing three pivotal social response themes that underpin the transformation of job dynamics in sectors influenced by technology. It is essential to grasp these concepts as they will shape the future of work, the quality of output, and the market's response to standardized content. As we delve into the details of this post, remember:
The Paradox of Accessibility: As technology simplifies tasks, more individuals are drawn to the allure of that profession. Yet, the irony is that the very technology making professions more accessible also diminishes the need for a large population of workers in that profession. For instance, if a CGI effect in a film once needed a team of 10 people that had 10 years experience each using an expensive render farm, advancements in accessible and potent technology might reduce that demand to just one individual with one year of experience and one computer. This dynamic creates an environment with a growing pool of enthusiasts but fewer available roles.
Modification of Price's Law: Price's Law posits that 50% of the work in any organization is done by the square root of the total number of people in that organization. However, with AI taking the helm, this equation changes. Now, it's plausible that the square root, or even fewer, can handle the entirety of the task, leaving the supporting roles to AI. This amplifies the effect of reduced human roles in the workflow.
Homogenization and Consumer Fatigue: Simplifying technologies tend to produce output that is often standardized. When movies, scenes, or any content begin to mirror one another in terms of emotion, setting, and mood, it leads to a saturation point. Consumers yearn for diversity and uniqueness. This saturation triggers a renewed demand for innovative, distinct content, even if it comes with a higher price tag.
Keeping these themes in mind provides a roadmap to understand the inevitable ebb and flow of consumer demand and the industry's response in a technologically evolving landscape.
But first - Let use history as a guide. I would posit that the introduction, and impact, of the personal computer, is a good comparative to the introduction of AI.
Let's let history guide us by shifting our lens to the past, particularly to the advent of the personal computer. When PCs started becoming household staples in the late 20th century, there were widespread fears about their potential to replace jobs, rendering many obsolete. Indeed, certain roles, especially repetitive clerical tasks like manual data entry and typewriting, diminished significantly or disappeared entirely. However, while some jobs were eliminated, many others transformed, requiring new skill sets. For instance, typists evolved into word processors and administrative assistants, embracing the efficiency computers provided. Furthermore, the personal computer era ushered in an array of entirely new professions that were previously unimaginable. We saw the rise of software developers, IT support specialists, digital graphic designers, and many others. The digital revolution brought forth opportunities for entrepreneurship, e-commerce, and global connectivity, highlighting how technology often displaces certain jobs but simultaneously creates a plethora of new opportunities and fields.
A THEME TO REMEMBER: Every time a fresh technological innovation emerges, concerns inevitably arise regarding its potential to render certain jobs obsolete. Drawing from historical context – consider the apprehensions that surrounded the advent of personal computers.
It eliminates jobs - repetitive, manual, data-intensive, and rule-based tasks
It changes jobs - essential jobs done by less users paired with new technology
It creates new jobs - unforeseen professions created by the advent of the technology
Now let’s get to the details and talk about the Big Bad Wolf - AI
First and foremost, let’s we need to come to terms with the reality that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will eventually become an integral component of each phase in the filmmaking process. This shift signifies a transformation in how movies are conceptualized, produced, and distributed.
When considering the ramifications of AI on various industries and processes, it's crucial to understand that not all AI is created equal. In fact, AI can be broadly categorized into three distinct types, each carrying its own unique implications and transformative potential:
Type 1: Analytical - This form of AI focuses on assessing existing assets, critically examining them to provide insightful recommendations for enhancement. It doesn't generate new content but offers guidance on refining what's already present. Here are some areas where AI will be integrated into the filmmaking process.
Creative Workflow: Script Evaluation, Casting Suggestions, Performance Analysis, Scene Optimization, Sound and Music Evaluation, Editing Feedback, Visual Effects Quality Assessment.
Supportive Workflow: Audience Feedback Analysis, Market Analysis, Social Media Analysis and Recommendations, Distribution Strategy Recommendations.
Type 2: Integrated - Integrated AI seamlessly merges with the tools that are currently in use within a particular industry or workflow. It serves as an upgrade or enhancement to the existing toolchain, making current processes more efficient or effective without entirely changing the foundational approach.
Maya - A professional 3D computer graphics application used for animation, modeling, simulation, and rendering (auto-rigging for character animation, predictive motion paths, facial expression algorithms, automated lighting adjustments)
Houdini - A 3D procedural software for animation, VFX, and game development (simulated natural effects optimization, particle behavior predictions, procedural pattern generation enhancements, AI-driven scene dynamics)
Cinema 4D - A 3D modeling, animation, motion graphic, and rendering application (texture generation based on descriptions, AI-driven morphing, optimal camera placement predictions)
Unreal Engine - A powerful game development engine used for creating real-time, high-fidelity experiences (real-time scene lighting adjustments, behavior-based NPC scripting, predictive level design assistance, AI-driven physics simulations)
Blender - An open-source 3D computer graphics software toolset used for creating animated films, visual effects, and games (auto-sculpting based on descriptions, AI-assisted UV mapping, predictive rendering optimizations)
Avid Media Composer - A film and video editing software application or non-linear editing system (best cut recommendations, scene continuity checks, auto-transitions based on mood, sound sync predictions.
DaVinci Resolve - A color correction and non-linear video editing application (mood-based color palette suggestions, AI-driven stabilization, auto color balancing)
After Effects - A digital visual effects, motion graphics, and compositing application (automated rotoscoping, AI-driven visual effect suggestions, predictive motion tracking, content-aware fill enhancements)
Pro Tools - A digital audio workstation platform for recording, editing, and mixing music and sound (Background noise removal algorithms, AI-based sound effect generation, voice tone matching, predictive mixing)
Type 3: Orthogonal - Taking a more disruptive approach, Orthogonal AI does not seek to integrate or merely analyze. Instead, it introduces entirely new methods and paradigms, often bypassing or making redundant the established tools and processes. This type of AI paves the way for revolutionary changes, creating new workflows that might be inconceivable within the current system.
A THEME TO REMEMBER. The Innovator's Dilemma:
The Innovator's Dilemma, authored by Clayton M. Christensen, delves into the paradoxical challenge that successful companies face in maintaining their leadership position when confronted with groundbreaking innovations. The book's primary themes underscore the complexities companies encounter when navigating the balance between catering to current customers' needs while anticipating the disruptive shifts in the market that could render their products or services obsolete. In exploring these themes, Christensen takes the reader through the evolution of the storage industry, detailing its epochs: from mainframe computer disks to smaller mini-computer disks, then to personal computer disks, and finally, the shift to cloud storage. With each transition, dominant companies were often caught off-guard by innovations they dismissed as inferior or irrelevant, only to see these innovations dominate a new market segment.
Runway ML and the Innovator's Dilemma in Film and Television:
Runway ML, and similar Type 3 Orthogonal AI software, presents the quintessential Innovator's Dilemma for the titans of the film and television industry. While these platforms may seem unconventional and perhaps even rudimentary in comparison to traditional filmmaking tools and workflows, they're pioneering a radical departure from the established norms. Runway ML, for instance, bypasses typical production steps, facilitating content creation with machine-driven algorithms. It might not replace the intricacies of making traditional films or television shows right away, but its potential lies in cultivating an entirely novel genre of content. This fresh approach might attract a new audience segment, perhaps younger or more digitally native, eager for AI-augmented visual experiences. The danger for the incumbent industry leaders is dismissing these tools as niche or inferior. By the time the transformative potential of software like Runway ML becomes evident, traditional studios, entrenched in their legacy workflows, might find themselves outpaced and ill-equipped to respond to this burgeoning realm of entertainment.
Recognizing these distinctions is vital for any discussion on AI's future impact, as each type offers a different lens through which to envision the forthcoming transformations.
Now, let’s discuss an even bigger, bad-er wolf - pure digital.
Amid the media's focus on AI, an equally significant, if not greater, technological shift is unfolding in the filmmaking world. This transformation charts a journey from the foundational era of live-action filming to the infusion of VFX enhancements, followed by the widespread adoption of green screens and the immersive realm of virtual production. Over the next 10 years, the industry stands on the brink of a new age – pure virtual filmmaking, where entire narratives are conceived, developed, and rendered within the digital domain. This progression not only reshapes storytelling but also redefines traditional roles and processes within the cinematic landscape.
But let us look at several technological epochs within film and television and the impacts of those epochs on jobs.
1. Live Action (1895-Present) - Live action filmmaking originated in the late 19th century. Early films from the 1880s and 1890s were brief recordings of daily occurrences termed "actualities." Pioneers like Thomas Edison and the Lumière brothers produced these films, with the Lumière's 1895 "Workers Leaving the Lumière Factory" being a notable example. Over time, these evolved into more intricate narratives, laying the groundwork for modern live-action cinema.
Description: This is the foundational era of filmmaking where everything was shot in-camera. Sets were built, actors performed on location or studios, and practical effects were employed to bring stories to life.
Jobs Impact: The traditional jobs thrived in this phase. Jobs included directors, cinematographers, set designers, costume designers, makeup artists, and film editors, among others.
2. Live Action Supplemented with VFX (1902-Present) - VFX in filmmaking began with early cinema, where filmmakers like George Méliès used visual tricks in storytelling. Méliès' 1902 "A Trip to the Moon" showcased techniques such as stop-motion and multiple exposures. These foundational methods evolved throughout the 20th century, leading to advanced tools like optical printers, compositing techniques, and the emergence of digital VFX with computer technology.
Description: Films began to employ computer-generated imagery and visual effects to enhance or replace elements that were too costly, dangerous, or impossible to capture on film. This included anything from simple wire removal to creating entire creatures or locations digitally.
Jobs Impact: The introduction of VFX led to a reduction in the need for large-scale physical sets, practical effect crews, and stuntmen (to some extent). However, it created a boom in jobs related to digital effects, including VFX artists, digital compositors, animators, and CGI modelers.
3. Green Screen & Virtual Production (1930-Present) - Green screen technology, originating in the 1930s with filmmakers at RKO Radio Pictures, allows actors to be filmed against a monochrome backdrop, later replaced by different scenes. Larry Butler first used this in "The Thief of Bagdad" in 1940. In contrast, virtual production, emerging in the late 20th century, was popularized by "Avatar" in 2009. Leveraging tools like Unreal Engine, it merges live-action with real-time CGI, modernizing traditional filming approaches.
Description: Rather than shooting on physical sets, filmmakers started using green screens extensively to digitally replace the background. This allows for more flexibility in post-production. Virtual production, on the other hand, merges VFX and live-action shooting, where filmmakers can see the digital environment in real-time as they film actors.
Jobs Impact: There's a decline in the need for location scouts, set builders, and some on-set crew members. However, there's an increase in demand for VFX supervisors on set, digital environment artists, motion capture experts, and real-time VFX artists.
4. Pure Virtual (1995-Present) - The first feature-length film that was made entirely using computer-generated imagery (CGI) was "Toy Story," which was released in 1995. Produced by Pixar Animation Studios and distributed by Walt Disney Pictures, "Toy Story" marked a significant milestone in the history of cinema, as it was the first time a film was created without any traditional animation or live-action elements.
Description: Entire movies or shows are created in a digital space without the need for live-action elements. This might involve motion capture of actors or could be entirely animated without any human performance.
Jobs Impact: Traditional on-set roles like makeup artists, set designers, and even certain roles like traditional cinematographers and lighting crews see a reduction. In their place, there's a surge in jobs related to digital animation, digital set design, virtual cinematography, and more specialized roles in motion capture and virtual reality.
A THEME TO REMEMBER. For every technological advancement pulling us towards banality, there will always be an equal and opposite pull back to beautiful imperfection of humanity. Despite technological advancements, the core of filmmaking lies in the authentic human touch, which brings unique, irreplaceable depth and emotional resonance to each aspect of the craft. This touch ensures the continued relevance and allure of human-centric roles in an increasingly digital landscape.
Actors. While the filmmaking industry is swiftly moving towards a digital frontier, I would posit that one notable exception to this transition might be the role of actors. Within the coming years, advances in technology will likely grant us the capability to flawlessly replicate or synthesize any human form. Yet, the continued presence of real actors might not be a technological imperative, but rather a human one. Audiences, at their core, crave authentic connections and resonate with genuine human experiences. Much like how technologically feasible robot-led F1 races wouldn't captivate audiences, a purely digital character might lack the emotional depth and relatability that a real actor brings. The inherent imperfections, vulnerabilities, and triumphs of real people, despite their flaws, form the crux of storytelling that resonates. We don't just watch for entertainment; we watch to see reflections of our shared humanity, and it's in these human moments that true cinematic magic is found.
Writers. While AI can analyze vast amounts of text and potentially suggest plots or dialogues, it's the unique human experiences, memories, emotions, and cultural context that form the foundation of compelling storytelling. A writer's touch embodies the nuances, intricacies, and depth of human emotion, which cannot be algorithmically generated. In a world inundated with AI-generated content, it will be the human writer's voice that stands distinct, ensuring stories are relatable and not just formulaic replications.
Directors. Direction isn't just about orchestrating scenes; it's about interpreting scripts, connecting with actors, and understanding the pulse of the audience. The director's intuition, creativity, and ability to evoke emotion will be crucial differentiators in a world where AI can potentially lay out scenes or sequences. Genuine moments of spontaneity and the profound understanding of human dynamics will help content steered by human directors shine amidst a sea of AI-driven predictability.
Cinematographers. The role of a cinematographer extends beyond framing shots. It's about capturing the essence of a moment, the play of light and shadow, and the emotion it conveys. While AI can analyze and suggest optimal settings based on algorithms, the human touch of a cinematographer brings an ineffable quality to the visuals – a sense of mood, rhythm, and spirit. In an age where visuals can be replicated seamlessly, it's the human-imbued artistry that will rise above the generic.
Editors. Editing isn't merely about stitching scenes together but about understanding pacing, tension, release, and resonance. An editor's instincts on what to emphasize, when to pause, and what to omit, come from a deep-seated understanding of human reactions and emotions. As AI begins to offer automated editing solutions, the discerning eye and emotional intelligence of human editors will be ever more critical. Their touch ensures that the story flows organically, resonating with the very human need for connection and understanding, setting it apart from algorithmic, and often soulless, alternatives.
Conclusion. Throughout this discussion, we delved deep into the transformative potential of AI in the filmmaking process, from its integration into creative and supportive workflows to its evolutionary trajectory in the industry. While technology, especially AI, promises to streamline, enhance, and even revolutionize various aspects of filmmaking, there remains an irreplaceable value in the human touch. Whether it's the authenticity of writers, the vision of directors, the artistry of cinematographers, or the intuition of editors, the unique human essence they bring is paramount. Despite the rapid advancements in technology and the march towards a digitized world, it's this inherent human-ness, with all its imperfections and emotions, that will forever be at the heart of storytelling, ensuring that humanity always has a place, even atop the most advanced technological innovations.
Go Down the Rabbit Hole
The Innovators Dilemma - The Innovator's Dilemma, coined by Clayton Christensen, describes how established companies can be overtaken by newcomers because they focus on current customers' needs while neglecting disruptive technologies that transform the market.
Will Unreal Engine be the Future of Filmmaking? - a great overview of what a single person, or small filmmaker team, can do in Unreal Engine.
Re-creating New York City with 1 person in Unreal Engine - a look inside the power of a technology called procedural technology. It’s not AI, but we should be paying attention to it.
Re-creating the city from Matrix in Unreal Engine - as part of a major upgrade for Unreal Engine, this demo was released - another example of procedural technology.
Real-time photo realistic demo for Unreal Engine - an excellent overview of what’s possible in Unreal Engine these days.
Paint entire landscapes with a brush - Errant Worlds is a new procedural painter that enables a single user to paint miles of photo realistic landscape in seconds.
Unreal Engine Electric Dreams Demo - New and native to Unreal Engine, showing the power of Procedural Technology - again, not AI, but really impressive.
Metahumans, they don’t quite look real yet, but a year from now they will - an amazing video done by a small team to demo what you can do with Unreal Engine and an iPhone.
Metahumans, live on stage demo with an iPhone - again, still triggers that uncanny valley, but it’s getting close - real close.
The power of Parametric World Creation - an amazing poem/demo of what can be done in minutes with World Creator. This is a must watch.
Irradiation Short Film - a video showing what is possible with KitBashing a kit from a company called Big Medium Small.
What is The Brief and Who should read it?
I release a weekly digest every Friday, tailored for professionals ranging from executives to writers, directors, cinematographers, editors, and anyone actively involved in the film and television domain. This briefing offers a comprehensive yet accessible perspective on the convergence of technology and its implications for the movie and TV industry. It serves as an efficient gateway to understanding the nexus between Hollywood and Silicon Valley.
What’s the format of The Brief?
In the evolving landscape of Film and Television, concerns about the repercussions of rapid technological advancements are growing. Many in the industry fear that innovations, like AI, could threaten job security, while there's an unease that corporations might put profit margins ahead of fair compensation. But history, particularly from past technological waves in Silicon Valley, offers us valuable lessons. In this daily analysis, I'll juxtapose historical context with present-day developments, aiming to provide clear and informed insights into how the industry is being reshaped — acknowledging the challenges but also spotlighting the new horizons.
Who am I?
I'm Steve Newcomb, perhaps most recognized for founding Powerset, which was later acquired by Microsoft and transformed into Microsoft Bing. I had the privilege of being on the pioneering team that witnessed the inaugural email sent via a mobile device. My journey also led me to SRI (Stanford Research Institute), where we laid the groundwork for contemporary speech recognition technology. Additionally, I was a co-founder of the debut company to introduce a 3D physics engine in Javascript. I've held positions on the board of directors and contributed funding to massive open source initiatives like NodeJS and even the largest such project, jQuery. My experience extends to academia, having been a senior fellow at the University of California, Berkeley's engineering and business faculties. Recently, I ventured into Layer 2 internet protocols and assisted a company named Matter Labs in securing $440 million in funding to bolster their endeavors.
What am I doing besides writing these posts?
Typically, I allocate a year between groundbreaking ventures. My exploration for the upcoming project commenced in May 2023, and the sole certainty is its nexus with the film, television, SMURF, and AI domains. Sharing insights on my research endeavors helps me discern between feasible prospects and mere illusions.
If you are interested in contacting me, my email is steve.e.newcomb@gmail.com.